Change the Unemployment Claims Model

Initial Claims Rise, Housing Starts Drops, NSA Housing Permits At Three Month Low | ZeroHedge.

ZeroHedge is pointing out a data anomaly in new unemployment claims. Doesn’t this information more revision-prone since the financial crisis? I believe that the crisis changed the background assumptions in which economic models are grounded. This phenomenon extends to all the economic data. Unemployment claims, GDP and housing data all are revised downward when no one is looking.

I do  not see a conspiracy among all the different data providers to make things seem rosier than they really are. No one likes to admit they’re wrong, so economists keep using the same old models.

 

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