Greece will not be allowed to default or Grexit. It’s much too cheap to keep stringing them along until the next market swoon.
This is how the situation will unfold over the next couple of months. The Greeks will continue getting backdoor bailouts from the ECB like I describe here:
Once this process has reached the end of the road, there will be some softening of the bailout terms in order to keep Greece from defaulting. While this will be a third bailout, no one will dare call it this because of the political ramifications. The troika will change payment and disbursement dates and may even forgive some debt just enough to keep Greece in the game.