When Greece first admitted that it had lied about its budget numbers in 2009, the main concern was that the banks holding Greek public and private debt would fail.
At this time, the world had just emerged from the post-Lehman panic, and a fragile recovery had begun to take hold in the markets. European leaders realized that allowing Greece to fail would pull under the banks. These are not just Greek institutions, but the largest financial firms in Europe. Deutsche Bank was rumored to be in the deepest.
All of the pain of austerity was not meant to help the Greek people but to bailout these banks. Greece has had three years of austerity and is not any closer to emerging from its five year depression.
The European politicians seem to think that they can continue calling the shots and maintain the status quo without any repercussions. Now, fascism is rearing its ugly head. Greece was governed by a military, fascist dictatorship into the 1970’s, so these latest events should not be surprising.
The fascists are a minority, but they are a noisy minority. Consider the Arab Spring and Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood is a minority, but a loud and organized one. Secular democrats led the revolt against Mubarak, but the Islamists quickly took advantage.
The fascists in Greece are taking the same path. They are polling near 20%, and they seem to have infiltrated the police and the army. Considering Greece’s history, a coup is becoming more and more likely.
A change in Greek governments whether by election or force will lead to an immediate default and revocation of the bailout terms. Then, what will have started in the Balkans will begin spreading to Europe and then the world.