In case you forgot about Greece after the latest can-kick by the Eurozone, today we learned that Greek unemployment had risen to 26% by September knocking off long-term leader Spain.
Greece’s “debt sustainability” assumes that the economic implosion does not worsen from present levels up until after German elections where it positively launches into a sustained eight year boom. Neither of these forecasts are likely.
In fact, based on worsening unemployment,
and cratering GDP,
Greek tax revenues will continue to decline. If the situation worsens as much in 2013 as it did in 2012, Greece will keep bleeding almost a billion euro or so a month. By the summer, it will need another
bailout adjustment to its program to fill a €6 – 10bn hole in its budget. That is assuming everything goes well and the current Greek government survives that long.