Today the OECD released its economic forecast for the G7 nations for the 1st and 2nd quarters. In my humble opinion, the organization is being very optimistic in its forecasts. Over time, economies grow, and the models all rely heavily on this fact. Since the onset of the GFC, the structure of the world economy has changed, but the models haven’t. While they were never perfect, a marked tendency has developed for forecasts of growth to miss low. If the models were more accurate, they would sometimes miss high and sometimes miss low instead.
To have a little fun, I thought we would keep track of how these forecasts turn out. Why don’t you play along? Write your forecasts in the comments section, and we’ll revisit this piece in a few months to see how we’re all doing.