Poland Considers Euro Membership

Poland Warily Revives Debate on Adopting the Euro – WSJ.com.

This is not a Polish joke.  Poland is actually considering euro membership.  Fortunately, the stupid Pole is just a stereotype propagated by years of inappropriate comments, and  Poles are actually against euro adoption by over a two to one margin.  Despite the lack of political support, ill-suited economic fundamentals, and depressions and recessions caused by euro membership in countries with similar economies, Polish politicians are attempting to sell euro membership to the country.

The article states,

The emerging consensus is that for the common currency to regain its allure, euro-zone institutions from regional bank supervision to the fund set up to rescue countries in trouble need to be significantly strengthened.

My question is emerging consensus among whom? The people are strongly opposed to euro membership, so the implication must be the elite.  The good news is that the Germans will not pay any more money to strengthen European institutions, so the currency may not regain its allure for the elite for quite some time.

Fundamentally, Poland is ill-suited to join a currency union with Germany.  Then again, so were Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, but that didn’t stop them.

Poland runs  a consistent current account deficit with its own currency subject to its own monetary policy tailored for the peculiarities of its economy.  What will happen when it begins using a Teutonic-strong euro?

poland-current-account-to-gdp

Moreover, its labor market is uncompetitive with its own currency.  Disaster will result if Polish workers are forced to compete with the uber-productive Germans.  Polish unemployment is almost triple the German rate, and this number will get worse if the Poles are forced to compete against the Germans within the same currency zone.

poland-unemployment-rate

Poland needs to retain its own currency and the freedom to set a monetary policy for Poles, not be forced to adhere to the ECB’s policy for Germans.

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7 thoughts on “Poland Considers Euro Membership

      • Do you believe it is inevitable that the Eurozone will break up, or do you think they will grind on indefinitely?

        I am surprised that there hasn’t been more anti-euro political traction in the southern tier. I read that the Alternative for Deutschland Party is gaining strength in Germany, but unless something breaks before the German elections, I am not confident we see a major shift in Germany’s position on the Euro.

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