Around the Globe 08.08.2013

Europe and China’s green shoots have US gardener to thank.

China HSBC-Markit PMI 07.24.2013

Markit Eurozone Flash PMI 07.2013

Despite the mainstream media’s proclamation of “green shoots” in the Eurozone and China, the former is stagnating, and the latter shrinking according the latest data.  Examine the attached charts, and please point to the green shoots.

Usually, an economic recovery proceeds a certain way with reliable job growth.  This time is different, but the mainstream media is blithely unaware of the paradigm shift and continues to report the news within the standard recovery narrative.  Eventually, someone may figure out that this recession requires fresh analysis from a different perspective, but that is not in the cards yet.  For now, we must deal with a breathless Bob Pisani hoping that the market surges higher.

Greece’s Unemployment Rate Increased to Record High in May – Bloomberg.

Greek Unemployment Rate as of June 2013

I was getting very excited about the “green shoots” in the Eurozone, but then I read that Greek unemployment is at a record.  Most people derive their wealth and sense of well-being from their work.  If the labor market in performing poorly, then people are not doing well.  You can point to this figure and that figure and claim that there are green shoots, but until there is no recovery without a labor market recovery.

UPDATE 2-German exports struggle to regain momentum in June | Reuters.

German Export Performance Through 06.2013

More green shoots need debunking.  German exports may have risen, but this data is volatile.  A rise from one month to the next does not indicate that the German export machine is on the verge of revving up and pulling the entire Eurozone out of recession.

China Trade Rebounds in Further Sign Economy Stabilizing – Bloomberg.

Unexpected strength in China trade data eases some gloom | Reuters.

China Trade Data Beat Forecasts – WSJ.com.

Chinese Exports Through July 2013

This is “official” data from China.  Everyone knows that it is manipulated by the government, and this is very easy to prove.  China claims higher export levels than are supported by the import data from its trading partners, but the mainstream media does not place the “official” data in context and repeats it as fact.

The latest HSBC PMI shows the true picture of the Chinese economy:

China HSBC-Markit PMI Summary 07.24.2013

US claims tick up, but near post-recession lows.

U.S. Jobless Claims Tick Up – WSJ.com.

Gauge of U.S. layoffs falls to pre-recession level | Reuters.

Initial Unemployment Claims Through 08.03.2013

The most interesting conclusion that may be gleaned from the initial claims data is that the labor market is way behind other recoveries.  Four years in, initial claims should drop below 300,000, but they haven’t.  Stocks, bonds and house prices are at records thanks to asset price inflation courtesy of the Fed, but the labor market remains abysmal.  You would think that those Ivy-league educated central bankers would have figured out that the money printing is causing the poor labor market by now, but they are adhering to their money-printing dogma.  Woe is the worker.

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One thought on “Around the Globe 08.08.2013

  1. The often unrealized fiction is the IMF

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Monetary_Fund

    US contributes 17.69 % while individual countries in Europe
    each come in about 1/3 of that and China 4 %.

    I cannot wait to see the reaction when the tax payers realize the bill on this.

    So in this order of realized and unrealized fictions:

    1. Bernake and the Fed, printing and printing the money.

    2. Knowing Bernake and the Fed permit foreign banks with US offices
    to grab the interest free money.

    3. Additional foreign support given by the US taxpayer to the IMF.

    * Noted Question: How is Greece Italy France contributing their share to the IMF
    when they have no money ?

    Answer by the US increasing its share to 25 % or more is probably likely.

    In short, Greece, Italy, France etc. are or will all be supported by loans
    that cannot be paid back, and by artificial currency.

    The goal here is buying time,

    time for the banks and the private investors that took the
    high risk but received the high rate of return gambling on government bonds to get out

    Whilst the taxpayer is substituted as the bag holder.

    .

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