New mortgage apps are plummeting, which does not bode well for home sales. Even though the budget “impasse” will end with a deal before too much long-term damage to the nation’s standing is done, the consequences of this political theater will drag on for months. Home sales will drop through October, but a November rebound will be touted by the mainstream media as a resurgence in the housing “recovery,” not the pent up demand from prior weeks.
The ECB is not set to judge Eurozone banks. This is political theater to satisfy voters that the EU is not throwing away more of their hard-earned money on politically connected bank bailouts. Bank stress tests have already been conducted by the ECB with kid gloves, and this treatment is expected to continue. The Eurozone’s banking system is a disaster waiting to happen. Bad loans in the periphery are being hidden by policies such as slow markdowns of nonperforming debt and playing extend and pretend to prevent loans being categorized as “nonperforming.”
Take a look at our chart and prepared to be surprised by the host countries of the most dangerous banks. Germany and the rich countries do not wish to be on the hook for periphery banks, not just because they are being selfish but also because they can’t. They need to keep their powder dry in the case of a systemic collapse, still not out of the question at this juncture in the eurocrisis.
The Chinese mainstream media was recently bitching about the amount of US treasuries held by the country. No matter the country, the mainstream media fails when it refuses to depart from its narrative on a topic. The narrative for China’s position as the largest foreign holder of US debt is that the virtuous Chinese lend their savings to the stupid, fat spendthrifts across the Pacific to save them. Actually, the Chinese are saving themselves.
China actively discourages personal consumption by it citizens with an array of methods. Hence, China sells to but does not buy from the US, so surplus dollars must be invested somewhere, i.e. the US treasury market. In addition to not buying much from the US, the country purchases dollars on the open market to maintain the yuan’s weakness and its trade surplus. Like all Nash equilibriums, this system will continue until it cannot. Then, it will stop. Good luck guessing when.
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