Last month, I wrote that no matter what the politicians say there is no banking union unless all of the countries agree to
- A joint depository insurance scheme
- The type of institution to be regulated
- A set of rules
- An implementation schedule
- A way to legally allow countries outside the eurozone to participate in an ECB-led banking union
- A plan to deal with banks that are already in trouble or have been bailed out.
It seems that #5 is proving to be a sticking point. A treaty change will be necessary to allow countries not using the euro to participate in the banking union. Treaty changes are arduous and take years, so this banking union will not occur on the accelerated timetable desired by the periphery and France.
If the EU tells you next month that it has a banking union, consult the list above. The agreement must include plans for each of those six points. If they fudge any of them, then you may have a face saving agreement or some other type of political statement, but you do not have a banking union.